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2024-12-14 12:36:34

Wang Tao of UBS: It is estimated that deficit ratio will approach 4% of its financial resources or increase its investment in social security medical care next year. Wang Tao, head of Asian economic research and chief China economist of UBS, said that China's fiscal deficit ratio is expected to approach 4% next year, and the scale of ultra-long-term special government bonds excluding capital injection into state-owned banks may be 2 trillion yuan, and the amount of new local government special bonds may be 4.5 trillion to 5 trillion yuan. In fact, the fiscal expansion next year is relatively mild compared with the fiscal stimulus in 2008-2009. Wang Tao believes that next year, the government will increase investment in social security and medical care, and establish a more perfect social security system while boosting residents' confidence in the short term.Ye Fan, Southwest Securities: In 2025, the upward trend of domestic economy will continue, and it is estimated that the annual RRR will be lowered by about 100bp. The Central Economic Work Conference will be held in Beijing from December 11th to 12th. Ye Fan, chief economist of Southwest Securities, said that in 2025, the domestic economy will continue to stabilize and upward under the policy. From the structural point of view, infrastructure and manufacturing investment are expected to remain the main support items for domestic investment next year, and the decline in real estate investment will gradually narrow; Domestic demand is expected to play a stronger role in stimulating the economy than external demand, and domestic residents' consumption is expected to continue to pick up under the policy. Regarding the direction of fiscal and monetary policies, Ye Fan predicted that the issuance scale of ultra-long-term special government bonds will be around 1.5 trillion -2 trillion yuan in 2025, and it will continue to support the "dual" areas. In the first half of next year or the peak of government bond issuance, there may be a RRR cut for hedging. It is estimated that the RRR cut will be about 100bp for the whole year, and the interest rate cut will be decided by camera. The interest rate cut of 25bp-40bp may be promoted step by step.Bawang Chaji hired a new CFO from McDonald's. It is reported that Huang Hongfei, the former CFO of McDonald's China, left his post on October 14, 2024, and after a short break, he joined Bawang Chaji. According to informed sources, this move means that the listing process of Bawang Tea Ji is expected to accelerate.


Turkish regulators blocked access to dozens of cryptocurrency exchanges, and the Turkish Capital Markets Board listed websites that allegedly provided unauthorized cryptoasset services to Turkish customers.South Korea's stock market is bound to erase all the declines since the martial law storm, and South Korea's benchmark stock index will continue to rebound on Friday, which is bound to recover all the lost ground since the martial law storm. South Korea's Kospi index once rose by 0.7%, heading for four consecutive gains, erasing all the declines since December 3 in intraday trading. Late that night, South Korean President Yin Xiyue announced martial law and then hastily lifted it, shocking the world. Investors believe that South Korea's stock market has fallen too far recently, and expect that if Congress passes the second impeachment motion against Yin Xiyue over the weekend, the risk of political turmoil will be alleviated. Although Yin Xiyue refused to step down and vowed to fight to the end, there are more and more signs that some ruling party members may support the impeachment motion.Bawang Chaji hired a new CFO from McDonald's. It is reported that Huang Hongfei, the former CFO of McDonald's China, left his post on October 14, 2024, and after a short break, he joined Bawang Chaji. According to informed sources, this move means that the listing process of Bawang Tea Ji is expected to accelerate.


Trump supports that American dockers' employers should not replace them with automated equipment. US President-elect Donald Trump met with the leaders of the International Dockers' Association on Thursday and expressed his support for the dockers' union. The union's strike in October led to the closure of ports in the east and the Gulf Coast, and may now strike again. Trump met with Harold Daggett, chairman of the labor union, and Dennis Daggett, his son and executive vice chairman, and then posted on social media: "I have studied automation and know almost everything about it. The money saved is far less than the anxiety, pain and harm it brings to American workers. " The union's strike in October closed all major container ports from Houston to Miami to Boston for three days, and then the union agreed to return to work in exchange for a 61.5% contract salary increase in the next six years.EDI SUSIANTO, Executive Director of the Bank of Indonesia: The decline of the Indonesian rupiah was affected by global sentiment and the rise of the US dollar.Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index closed down 0.4% to 8,296 points.

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